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AI Impacts' page of February 2018 states that it is not convinced by any argument it has seen for expecting a large discontinuity in AI progress around AGI above the very low base rate for technologies, and argues that positive feedback loops, such as AI improving AI, rarely move fast enough and far enough to dominate. Copy claim link
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Machine-checked, not reviewed by an editor Stated in source Supported
Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2018-02-23 · publication Records dated 2018 → Wording attested 2020-05-26. Read in the current page, which states that it was last modified on 26 May 2020; the wording of 23 February 2018 was not compared. Role Contesting Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Engagement Engages a premise. It disputes the premise that a feedback loop of AI improving AI would be exceptionally fast, and the base rate of large technological discontinuities. Scope and limits The page calls the question open and lists conditions under which it would find the intelligence-explosion argument compelling. Read in the current page, modified 2020-05-26.
The evidence 02 primary source Supports the claim
Likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI ↗ AI Impacts (aiimpacts.org) · 2018-02-23
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Source excerpt “We aren’t convinced by any of the arguments we’ve seen to expect large discontinuity in AI progress above the extremely low base rate for all technologies.” Location in source Summary at the head of the page
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-10-31
Source details and check notes Authors AI Impacts Version Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29 (SHA-256 d9e01667bb8e9cabf89140e42d8c3f49f090e799789d8a6526299044d49b4bda). Current page, published 2018-02-23 and modified 2020-05-26 according to its metadata; retrieved 2026-10-29; the 2018 wording was not compared. The cross-family check retrieved it again on 2026-10-31; the bytes differ, and the check compared the quoted passages. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-29 Language English (en) Attribution AI Impacts, “Likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI”, 2018-02-23. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage, arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI (research/risk-debate). The quotation (26 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. A cross-family machine check (2026-10-31, item 100) re-read the record’s source and found the quotation and stance supported. No human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
Likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI ↗ AI Impacts (aiimpacts.org) · 2018-02-23
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Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
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Source excerpt “Positive feedback loops are common in the world, and very rarely move fast enough and far enough to become a dominant dynamic in the world.” Location in source Section "Intelligence explosion", Counterarguments
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-10-31
Source details and check notes Authors AI Impacts Version Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29 (SHA-256 d9e01667bb8e9cabf89140e42d8c3f49f090e799789d8a6526299044d49b4bda). Current page, published 2018-02-23 and modified 2020-05-26 according to its metadata; retrieved 2026-10-29; the 2018 wording was not compared. The cross-family check retrieved it again on 2026-10-31; the bytes differ, and the check compared the quoted passages. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-29 Language English (en) Attribution AI Impacts, “Likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI”, 2018-02-23. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage, arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI (research/risk-debate). The quotation (25 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. A cross-family machine check (2026-10-31, item 100) re-read the record’s source and found the quotation and stance supported. No human editorial review. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document disputes the proposition or a premise it depends on. The record documents the text’s position, not who is right.
Date. Date of publication, as the source gives it.
Record ID rd-a4-aiimpacts-2018-discontinuous-progress-agi