Likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI
An essay by AI Impacts, AI Impacts, dated 23 February 2018. article:published_time in the page metadata. The page names no author; Grace's post of 2022 links to it as a list she 'previously made'.
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- Likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI AI Impacts (aiimpacts.org) · published 2018-02-23 · Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29 (SHA-256 d9e01667bb8e9cabf89140e42d8c3f49f090e799789d8a6526299044d49b4bda). Current page, published 2018-02-23 and modified 2020-05-26 according to its metadata; retrieved 2026-10-29; the 2018 wording was not compared. The cross-family check retrieved it again on 2026-10-31; the bytes differ, and the check compared the quoted passages.
Appears in
- Propositions about superintelligence, 1863–2022 →1 record on this document
- Arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI →1 record on this document
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Propositions a passage of this document disputes, or a premise they depend on.
- Fast or hard takeoffAI Impacts' page of February 2018 states that it is not convinced by any argument it has seen for expecting a large discontinuity in AI progress around AGI above the very low base rate for technologies, and argues that positive feedback loops, such as AI improving AI, rarely move fast enough and far enough to dominate.2018-02-23 · publication · Stated in source · Supported Inspect claim & evidence ↗Fast or hard takeoff: propositions page →
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