Claim · 2023-01-23 · publication · Stated in source · Supported

Davidson's post of January 2023 names a fast takeoff, which it attributes partly to the expectation that AI will automate AI research and development before it automates the global economy, and gives its takeoff figures as the time from 20%-AI to 100%-AI for cognitive tasks in the global economy.

One recorded claim. The claim panel gives its qualification, the source passages with their place in each source, and how it was checked.

What it connects

What a compute-centric framework says about AI takeoff speeds → articulates → Fast or hard takeoff

Where it appears

Claim and evidence

What a compute-centric framework says about AI takeoff speedsarticulates ↓Fast or hard takeoff

Machine-checked, not reviewed by an editorStated in sourceSupported

Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source

Date: 2023-01-23 · publication Records dated 2023 →
Wording attested: 2025-04-01. Read through the LessWrong API, which gives a last modification on 1 April 2025; the wording of 23 January 2023 was not compared.
Role: Articulation
Register (kind of text): Nonfiction

Scope and limitsThe post's metric is not the criterion's span from roughly human level to far beyond it; the record rests on its naming a fast takeoff. Added on the cross-family check's proposal to balance the proposition's records.

The evidence 02

primary sourceSupports the claim

What a compute-centric framework says about AI takeoff speeds

LessWrong · 2023-01-23

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“One factor driving fast takeoff here is that I expect AI automation of AI R&D to happen before AI automation of the global economy.”

Location in source Opening summary, paragraph after the probabilities

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-10-31

Source details and check notes

Authors: Tom Davidson
Version: Post text read through the LessWrong API (post Gc9FGtdXhK9sCSEYu, field contents.html) at admission, because the page refused direct retrieval (HTTP 403); the API gives posting on 23 January 2023 and a last modification on 1 April 2025. The cross-family check read the page directly on 2026-10-31. Retrieved at admission on 2026-10-31 through the LessWrong API (SHA-256 89a82dfe9e003d83a975bf5b6fc9cbb3e9c7c1522fe0ec898932a4a6c0e23946).
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-10-31
Language: English (en)
Attribution: Tom Davidson, “What a compute-centric framework says about AI takeoff speeds”, 2023-01-23.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Added at the admission of the risk-debate pack (research/risk-debate). The quotation (24 words) matched a fresh retrieval of 2026-10-31 through the LessWrong API (SHA-256 89a82dfe9e003d83a975bf5b6fc9cbb3e9c7c1522fe0ec898932a4a6c0e23946). Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms. The cross-family check of 2026-10-31 proposed the record and read this passage. No human editorial review.

primary sourceSupports the claim

What a compute-centric framework says about AI takeoff speeds

LessWrong · 2023-01-23

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“Those numbers are time from 20%-AI to 100%-AI, for cognitive tasks in the global economy.”

Location in source Opening summary, after the list of probabilities

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-10-31

Source details and check notes

Authors: Tom Davidson
Version: Post text read through the LessWrong API (post Gc9FGtdXhK9sCSEYu, field contents.html) at admission, because the page refused direct retrieval (HTTP 403); the API gives posting on 23 January 2023 and a last modification on 1 April 2025. The cross-family check read the page directly on 2026-10-31. Retrieved at admission on 2026-10-31 through the LessWrong API (SHA-256 89a82dfe9e003d83a975bf5b6fc9cbb3e9c7c1522fe0ec898932a4a6c0e23946).
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-10-31
Language: English (en)
Attribution: Tom Davidson, “What a compute-centric framework says about AI takeoff speeds”, 2023-01-23.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Added at the admission of the risk-debate pack (research/risk-debate). The quotation (15 words) matched a fresh retrieval of 2026-10-31 through the LessWrong API (SHA-256 89a82dfe9e003d83a975bf5b6fc9cbb3e9c7c1522fe0ec898932a4a6c0e23946). Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms. Added at admission so that the metric is stated, as the adjudication asked; not part of the cross-family check's selection. No human editorial review.

Status and meaning

Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor. An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.

Relation. A passage of the document meets the proposition’s criterion. The record documents what the text states, in its register (fiction and satire are labelled); it is not evidence that the proposition is true and implies no influence on or from another text.

Date. Date of posting.

Record ID rd-a4-davidson-2023-compute-centric-takeoff