What a compute-centric framework says about AI takeoff speeds
A LessWrong post of 23 January 2023 by Tom Davidson summarising a draft report on AI takeoff speeds written for Open Philanthropy.
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- What a compute-centric framework says about AI takeoff speeds LessWrong · published 2023-01-23 · Post text read through the LessWrong API (post Gc9FGtdXhK9sCSEYu, field contents.html) at admission, because the page refused direct retrieval (HTTP 403); the API gives posting on 23 January 2023 and a last modification on 1 April 2025. The cross-family check read the page directly on 2026-10-31. Retrieved at admission on 2026-10-31 through the LessWrong API (SHA-256 89a82dfe9e003d83a975bf5b6fc9cbb3e9c7c1522fe0ec898932a4a6c0e23946).
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- Propositions about superintelligence, 1863–2022 →1 record on this document
- Arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI →1 record on this document
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- Fast or hard takeoffDavidson's post of January 2023 names a fast takeoff, which it attributes partly to the expectation that AI will automate AI research and development before it automates the global economy, and gives its takeoff figures as the time from 20%-AI to 100%-AI for cognitive tasks in the global economy.2023-01-23 · publication · Stated in source · Supported Inspect claim & evidence ↗Fast or hard takeoff: propositions page →
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