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Marcus's post of 28 March 2023 states that in the near term he is worried less about superintelligent machines beyond human control than about unreliable but widely deployed AI, that criminals and terrorists using it could contribute to nuclear war or the deliberate spread of pathogens, and that people need to stop worrying only about takeover scenarios and think more about such misuse. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2023-03-28 · publication Records dated 2023 → Role Articulation Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Scope and limits The ranking is stated for the near term. The post gives no estimate ("We have no earthly idea") and says its 1% figure was a thought experiment; it also states that future technology may be harder to control. Its "MAI risk" covers unreliability as well as misuse.
The evidence 03 primary source Supports the claim
AI risk ≠ AGI risk ↗ Marcus on AI, author's Substack (garymarcus.substack.com) · 2023-03-28
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Source excerpt “I am not worried, immediately, about “AGI risk” (the risk of superintelligent machines beyond our control), in the near term I am worried about what I will call “MAI risk” Location in source Opening section, after the Hinton tweet
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-10-31
Source details and check notes Authors Gary Marcus Version Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29 (SHA-256 5ab3a54e0f2b5e20368a619bcd0dde481432d904f94c0dcc2e985bc5d153fd03). Current Substack post, datePublished 2023-03-28; embedded tweets and a quoted Europol excerpt are not the author's text and are not quoted. The cross-family check retrieved it again on 2026-10-31; the bytes differ, and the check compared the quoted passages. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-29 Language English (en) Attribution Gary Marcus, “AI risk ≠ AGI risk”, 2023-03-28. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage, arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI (research/risk-debate). The quotation (30 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. A cross-family machine check (2026-10-31, item 102) re-read the record’s source and found the quotation and stance supported. No human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
AI risk ≠ AGI risk ↗ Marcus on AI, author's Substack (garymarcus.substack.com) · 2023-03-28
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Source excerpt “Perhaps coupled with mass AI-generated propaganda, LLM-enhanced terrorism could in turn lead to nuclear war, or to the deliberate spread of pathogens worse than covid-19, etc. Many, many people could die” Location in source Paragraph after the Europol excerpt
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-10-31
Source details and check notes Authors Gary Marcus Version Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29 (SHA-256 5ab3a54e0f2b5e20368a619bcd0dde481432d904f94c0dcc2e985bc5d153fd03). Current Substack post, datePublished 2023-03-28; embedded tweets and a quoted Europol excerpt are not the author's text and are not quoted. The cross-family check retrieved it again on 2026-10-31; the bytes differ, and the check compared the quoted passages. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-29 Language English (en) Attribution Gary Marcus, “AI risk ≠ AGI risk”, 2023-03-28. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage, arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI (research/risk-debate). The quotation (31 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. A cross-family machine check (2026-10-31, item 102) re-read the record’s source and found the quotation and stance supported. No human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
AI risk ≠ AGI risk ↗ Marcus on AI, author's Substack (garymarcus.substack.com) · 2023-03-28
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Source excerpt “We need to stop worrying (just) about Skynet and robots taking over the world, and think a lot more about what criminals, including terrorists, might do with LLMs” Location in source Later paragraph
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-10-31
Source details and check notes Authors Gary Marcus Version Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29 (SHA-256 5ab3a54e0f2b5e20368a619bcd0dde481432d904f94c0dcc2e985bc5d153fd03). Current Substack post, datePublished 2023-03-28; embedded tweets and a quoted Europol excerpt are not the author's text and are not quoted. The cross-family check retrieved it again on 2026-10-31; the bytes differ, and the check compared the quoted passages. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-29 Language English (en) Attribution Gary Marcus, “AI risk ≠ AGI risk”, 2023-03-28. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage, arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI (research/risk-debate). The quotation (28 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. A cross-family machine check (2026-10-31, item 102) re-read the record’s source and found the quotation and stance supported. No human editorial review. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document meets the proposition’s criterion. The record documents what the text states, in its register (fiction and satire are labelled); it is not evidence that the proposition is true and implies no influence on or from another text.
Date. Date of posting.
Record ID rd-r09-marcus-2023-ai-risk-agi-risk