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The post “After critical event W happens, they still won't believe you” (2013-06-13) contests Y08. Rejects forecasts of the form 'after event W, everyone will see X and endorse policy Z'; one of his worked examples is the expectation that more sophisticated AI will make society take Friendly AI seriously. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2013-06-13 · publication Role Contesting Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Engagement Engages a premise. Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that there will be a recognisable, consensus-forming signal in time to act. Scope and limits Premise addressed: There will be a recognisable, consensus-forming signal in time to act. 2013-06-13 LessWrong post. The general schema covers several domains; the AI case is the post's Example 2.
The evidence 01 primary source Supports the claim
After critical event W happens, they still won't believe you ↗ LessWrong · 2013-06-13
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Source excerpt “After event W happens, a few more relatively young scientists will see the truth of proposition X, and the larger society won't be able to tell a damn difference.” Location in source final paragraph, beginning 'After event W happens, a few more relatively young scientists'
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Eliezer Yudkowsky Version Post body retrieved through the LessWrong GraphQL API on 2026-10-06 (SHA-256 b5d92ab3f949ac384f303fb76d46079495bc671dad8b9bc62413896a4025a627), content version 1.0.0. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Attribution Eliezer Yudkowsky, “After critical event W happens, they still won't believe you”, LessWrong, 2013-06-13. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage T08-b. The quotation (29 words) matched the retrieved expression (SHA-256 b5d92ab3f949ac384f303fb76d46079495bc671dad8b9bc62413896a4025a627) when checked on 2026-10-06. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document disputes the proposition or a premise it depends on. The record documents the text’s position, not who is right.
Date. LessWrong postedAt.
Record ID yk-y08-lw-2013-after-critical-event-w-happens-they-c