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The post “GPTs are Predictors, not Imitators” (2023-04-08) contests Y09. Using the example of text listing products of primes followed by the primes, he argues that predicting text can demand more intelligence than generating it, so the task does not cap out at the level of the human writers. Concludes that predicting all Internet text, including the errors and private thoughts behind it, is a harder task than being a human, while conceding that GPT-4 is not yet as capable as a human in many ways. Copy claim link
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Machine-checked, not reviewed by an editor Stated in source Supported
Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2023-04-08 · publication Role Contesting Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Engagement Engages a premise. Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system trained to predict human text is capped at imitating the humans who wrote it, and against the premise that next-token prediction is a shallow task that cannot require deep cognition. Scope and limits (paragraph beginning 'There is no law saying') Premise addressed: A system trained to predict human text is capped at imitating the humans who wrote it. The post notes that related text was first posted to Twitter and that this version is edited. (paragraph beginning 'GPT-4 is still not as smart as a human') Premise addressed: Next-token prediction is a shallow task that cannot require deep cognition. The post notes that related text was first posted to Twitter and that this version is edited.
The evidence 02 primary source Supports the claim
GPTs are Predictors, not Imitators ↗ LessWrong · 2023-04-08
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Source excerpt “There is no law saying that a predictor only needs to be as intelligent as the generator, in order to predict the generator's next token.” Location in source paragraph beginning 'There is no law saying'
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Eliezer Yudkowsky Version Post body retrieved through the LessWrong GraphQL API on 2026-10-06 (SHA-256 24a41ca1ec6d0276008e11e705db91b8a645ad70bc2fcad1245ca1a597f5528a), content version 1.1.0; quotations also compared with the posting-day version 1.0.0. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Attribution Eliezer Yudkowsky, “GPTs are Predictors, not Imitators”, LessWrong, 2023-04-08. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage T09-b. The quotation (25 words) matched the retrieved expression (SHA-256 24a41ca1ec6d0276008e11e705db91b8a645ad70bc2fcad1245ca1a597f5528a) when checked on 2026-10-06. It also matched the posting-day version 1.0.0. Pack version note: edited post, current version 1.1.0; posting-day check pending. primary source Supports the claim
GPTs are Predictors, not Imitators ↗ LessWrong · 2023-04-08
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Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
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Source excerpt “GPT-4 is still not as smart as a human in many ways, but it's naked mathematical truth that the task GPTs are being trained on is harder than being an actual human.” Location in source paragraph beginning 'GPT-4 is still not as smart as a human'
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Eliezer Yudkowsky Version Post body retrieved through the LessWrong GraphQL API on 2026-10-06 (SHA-256 24a41ca1ec6d0276008e11e705db91b8a645ad70bc2fcad1245ca1a597f5528a), content version 1.1.0; quotations also compared with the posting-day version 1.0.0. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Attribution Eliezer Yudkowsky, “GPTs are Predictors, not Imitators”, LessWrong, 2023-04-08. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage T09-c. The quotation (32 words) matched the retrieved expression (SHA-256 24a41ca1ec6d0276008e11e705db91b8a645ad70bc2fcad1245ca1a597f5528a) when checked on 2026-10-06. It also matched the posting-day version 1.0.0. Pack version note: edited post, current version 1.1.0; posting-day check pending. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document disputes the proposition or a premise it depends on. The record documents the text’s position, not who is right.
Date. LessWrong postedAt.
Record ID yk-y09-lw-2023-gpts-are-predictors-not-imitators-c