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The post “Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds"” (2021-11-22) contests Y11. Commenting on Paul Christiano's 'Takeoff Speeds' essay, he rejects its description of the fast-takeoff view as accelerating growth; on his view there is no visible period of rapidly rising economic output before the end. Responds to Christiano's claim that very powerful AI will precede incredibly powerful AI: such predecessors may exist but, like the near-critical pile, may come too briefly before the decisive system to matter. Copy claim link
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Date 2021-11-22 · publication Role Contesting Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Engagement Engages a premise. Under the message-level rule, one passage, read with the message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that slightly weaker predecessor systems will give us time and experience to adjust before the decisive one, while another states the contrary conclusion only. Scope and limits (§5.5 'Slower takeoff means faster progress', turn [Yudkowsky][16:57], paragraph after the quoted Christiano text) Premise addressed: Capability gains will be gradual and visible. The quotation is a turn attributed to Yudkowsky in a dialogue. Live commentary written 14 September 2021, published 2021-11-22 as part of the Late 2021 MIRI Conversations. The blockquoted Christiano text before this paragraph is excluded. About world GDP growth; deliberately hyperbolic, in his commentary on a passage from Christiano's "Takeoff Speeds". Lightly edited transcript of a conversation held before the posting date; the date shown is the publication date. (§5.5 'Operationalizing slow takeoff', turn [Yudkowsky][17:01], paragraph beginning 'Statements like these') Premise addressed: Slightly weaker predecessor systems will give us time and experience to adjust before the decisive one. The quotation is a turn attributed to Yudkowsky in a dialogue. Live commentary written 14 September 2021, published 2021-11-22. The Christiano sentence it answers is a blockquote and is excluded. Lightly edited transcript of a conversation held before the posting date; the date shown is the publication date.
The evidence 02 primary source Supports the claim
Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds" ↗ LessWrong · 2021-11-22
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Source excerpt “My mainline view is that growth stays at 5%/year and then everybody falls over dead in 3 seconds and the world gets transformed into paperclips; there's never a point with 3000%/year.” Location in source §5.5 'Slower takeoff means faster progress', turn [Yudkowsky][16:57], paragraph after the quoted Christiano text
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Eliezer Yudkowsky Version Post body retrieved through the LessWrong GraphQL API on 2026-10-06 (SHA-256 92f8e39af112cd6ddbebbe618e05878bc9a26823b758721feea6555fd99d6248), content version 1.0.0. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Attribution Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds"”, LessWrong, 2021-11-22. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage T11-c. The quotation (31 words) matched the retrieved expression (SHA-256 92f8e39af112cd6ddbebbe618e05878bc9a26823b758721feea6555fd99d6248) when checked on 2026-10-06. primary source Supports the claim
Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds" ↗ LessWrong · 2021-11-22
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Source excerpt “Before anybody built the first critical nuclear pile in a squash court at the University of Chicago, was there a pile that was almost but not quite critical? Yes, one hour earlier.” Location in source §5.5 'Operationalizing slow takeoff', turn [Yudkowsky][17:01], paragraph beginning 'Statements like these'
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Eliezer Yudkowsky Version Post body retrieved through the LessWrong GraphQL API on 2026-10-06 (SHA-256 92f8e39af112cd6ddbebbe618e05878bc9a26823b758721feea6555fd99d6248), content version 1.0.0. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Attribution Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds"”, LessWrong, 2021-11-22. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage T11-d. The quotation (32 words) matched the retrieved expression (SHA-256 92f8e39af112cd6ddbebbe618e05878bc9a26823b758721feea6555fd99d6248) when checked on 2026-10-06. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document disputes the proposition or a premise it depends on. The record documents the text’s position, not who is right.
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Record ID yk-y11-lw-2021-yudkowsky-and-christiano-discuss-takeoff-speeds-c