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The SL4 message “Re: Conservative Estimation of the Economic Impact of Artificial Intelligence” (2004-12-29) contests Y11. Criticising an essay on a 'conservative estimation' of AI's economic impact, he says it leaves out recursive self-improvement and calls its gradual picture, with plenty of time to see threats coming, a fantasy. Copy claim link
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Date 2004-12-29 · publication Role Contesting Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Engagement Engages a premise. Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that slightly weaker predecessor systems will give us time and experience to adjust before the decisive one. Scope and limits Premise addressed: Slightly weaker predecessor systems will give us time and experience to adjust before the decisive one. Not the earliest answer to ‘A slow takeoff will leave time to adjust’ (Y11) in SL4 (see his SL4 message of 2001-01-24), but the clearest SL4 statement against the time-to-adjust premise; earlier than his post ‘Hard Takeoff’ (2008-12-02).
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Re: Conservative Estimation of the Economic Impact of Artificial Intelligence (SL4 mailing list) ↗ SL4 mailing list · 2004-12-29
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Source excerpt “Recursive self-improvement seems to be missing in this discussion. Just a band of humans gradually improving an AI that slowly acquires more and more abilities. It makes for a nice fantasy of slow, relatively safe transcendence where you always have plenty of time to see threats coming before they hit.” Location in source message body, paragraph beginning 'Recursive self-improvement seems to be missing'
Machine-checked · 2026-10-07
Source details and check notes Authors Eliezer Yudkowsky Version Archive HTML as served, retrieved 2026-10-07 (SHA-256 8bbed89ce0a4e5a2502a96a362f4b3304757e96a7312708b5bbb2e4c04d6471b); quoted lines excluded when reading the author’s text. The served archive shows later URL rewriting and does not authenticate historical bytes. Archive at sl4.org. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-07 Language English (en) Attribution Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Re: Conservative Estimation of the Economic Impact of Artificial Intelligence”, SL4 mailing list, 2004-12-29. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage T11-s4. The quotation (50 words) matched the retrieved expression (SHA-256 8bbed89ce0a4e5a2502a96a362f4b3304757e96a7312708b5bbb2e4c04d6471b) when checked on 2026-10-07. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document disputes the proposition or a premise it depends on. The record documents the text’s position, not who is right.
Date. Archive author index lists the message as "Wed Dec 29 2004 - 16:27:43 MST" under "Eliezer Yudkowsky".
Record ID yk-y11-sl4-2004-12-29-yudkowsky-0412-10488-c