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The post “Hard Takeoff” (2008-12-02) contests Y11. Lists sources of discontinuity besides recursive self-improvement, here a hardware overhang: computers already far faster serially than neurons would be used for thinking once the algorithms are found. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2008-12-02 · publication Role Contesting Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Engagement Engages a premise. Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that capability gains will be gradual and visible. Scope and limits Premise addressed: Capability gains will be gradual and visible. Overcoming Bias post of 2008-12-02, imported to LessWrong; date is the OB date. Quote begins mid-sentence after 'because our computing hardware has run so far ahead of AI theory, we have incredibly fast computers we don't know how to use for thinking;'.
The evidence 01 primary source Supports the claim
Hard Takeoff ↗ Overcoming Bias · 2008-12-02
Archived copy, captured 2018-12-13: Hard Takeoff ↗
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Source excerpt “getting AI right could produce a huge, discontinuous jolt, as the speed of high-grade thought on this planet suddenly dropped into computer time.” Location in source paragraph beginning 'So that's another kind of overhang'
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Eliezer Yudkowsky Version Text checked in the post’s first stored version through the LessWrong GraphQL API on 2026-10-06; content version 1.0.0. Now hosted on LessWrong. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2018-12-13: Hard Takeoff ↗ . Captured 3663 days after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2018-12-13. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-06.Attribution Eliezer Yudkowsky, "Hard Takeoff", Overcoming Bias (now hosted on LessWrong), 2008-12-02. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage T11-b. The quotation (23 words) matched the retrieved expression (SHA-256 5a68e4ef17e8c6940ddc5dfe2bad40f3b5c538b1ff751c0b0b6661abb024f935) when checked on 2026-10-06. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document disputes the proposition or a premise it depends on. The record documents the text’s position, not who is right.
Date. LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date).
Record ID yk-y11-yudkowsky-2008-hard-takeoff-c