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The post “Irretrievability; or, Murphy's Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI” (2026-05-04) contests Y12. Answers the objection that experience with smaller AIs can inform alignment of superintelligence. Argues that conditions change between safe experiments and a situation in which the system could kill everyone, as they do between small and large trusts. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2026-05-04 · publication Role Contesting Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Engagement Engages a premise. Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that tests on systems that cannot yet cause a catastrophe show how more capable systems will behave. Scope and limits Premise addressed: Tests on systems that cannot yet cause a catastrophe show how more capable systems will behave.
The evidence 01 primary source Supports the claim
Irretrievability; or, Murphy's Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI ↗ LessWrong · 2026-05-04
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Source excerpt “there just isn't a nonlethal way to test out lethal levels of superintelligence.” Location in source 'Irretrievability; or, Murphy's Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI', section 'On the extraordinary efforts put forth to misinterpret the idea of oneshotness', paragraph beginning 'But that would be an argument so incredibly stupid'
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Eliezer Yudkowsky Version Post body retrieved through the LessWrong GraphQL API on 2026-10-06 (SHA-256 18e1a43a5ee28ef823852fcc8736f22dd63e605458b8e8c069c97799f0dd6870), content version 1.11.0; quotations also compared with the posting-day version 1.0.0. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Attribution Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Irretrievability; or, Murphy's Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI”, LessWrong, 2026-05-04. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage T12-d. The quotation (13 words) matched the retrieved expression (SHA-256 18e1a43a5ee28ef823852fcc8736f22dd63e605458b8e8c069c97799f0dd6870) when checked on 2026-10-06. It also matched the posting-day version 1.0.0. Pack version note: edited post, current version 1.11.0; quote shortened to wording present in both the posting-day version 1.0.0 and the current version (the following analogy was reworded after posting). Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document disputes the proposition or a premise it depends on. The record documents the text’s position, not who is right.
Date. LessWrong postedAt.
Record ID yk-y12-lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness-c