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The post “There's No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence” (2017-10-13) contests Y13. His second reason why apparent distance does not license inaction; he then gives the Wright brothers' and Fermi's own pessimistic forecasts as examples. Argues that people who defer alignment work until an unspecified future signal are unlikely to respond competently when a signal comes. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2017-10-13 · publication Role Contesting Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Engagement Engages a premise. Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we can know that AGI is decades away, and against the premise that long timelines mean there is no need to act now. Scope and limits (paragraph beginning 'Two: History shows') Premise addressed: We can know that AGI is decades away. The Wright and Fermi examples that follow are his narration of others' statements; only his own generalisation is quoted. (paragraph beginning 'It seems to me that the decision to delay all action') Premise addressed: Long timelines mean there is no need to act now.
The evidence 02 primary source Supports the claim
There's No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence ↗ LessWrong · 2017-10-13
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Source excerpt “…it is very often the case that key technological developments still seem decades away, five years before they show up.” Location in source paragraph beginning 'Two: History shows'
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Eliezer Yudkowsky Version Post body retrieved through the LessWrong GraphQL API on 2026-10-06 (SHA-256 cfa915be6c74c0b6463dd2d92069c39ba3016a66ee3e06c38199542b52cb0ed0), content version 1.0.0. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Attribution Eliezer Yudkowsky, “There's No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence”, LessWrong, 2017-10-13. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage T13-b. The quotation (20 words) matched the retrieved expression (SHA-256 cfa915be6c74c0b6463dd2d92069c39ba3016a66ee3e06c38199542b52cb0ed0) when checked on 2026-10-06. primary source Supports the claim
There's No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence ↗ LessWrong · 2017-10-13
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Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
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Source excerpt “It seems to me that the decision to delay all action until a nebulous totally unspecified future alarm goes off, implies an order of recklessness great enough that the law of continued failure comes into play.” Location in source paragraph beginning 'It seems to me that the decision to delay all action'
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Eliezer Yudkowsky Version Post body retrieved through the LessWrong GraphQL API on 2026-10-06 (SHA-256 cfa915be6c74c0b6463dd2d92069c39ba3016a66ee3e06c38199542b52cb0ed0), content version 1.0.0. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Attribution Eliezer Yudkowsky, “There's No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence”, LessWrong, 2017-10-13. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage T13-c. The quotation (36 words) matched the retrieved expression (SHA-256 cfa915be6c74c0b6463dd2d92069c39ba3016a66ee3e06c38199542b52cb0ed0) when checked on 2026-10-06. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document disputes the proposition or a premise it depends on. The record documents the text’s position, not who is right.
Date. LessWrong postedAt.
Record ID yk-y13-lw-2017-theres-no-fire-alarm-for-artificial-c