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“Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk” (2006-02-05) bears on Y24. Discussing a possible first-mover effect in superintelligence, which he defines by the makeup of the first mind to cross a key threshold, he argues that the first such AI must be Friendly. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 2 sources
Date 2006-02-05 · event Role Context Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Missing element A first-mover view about whether the first AI is Friendly; it does not claim that a builder or nation controls the AI or that racing improves the outcome. Scope and limits Premise addressed: Whoever builds it controls it. In 2008 he favoured a local strategy in which one project gets Friendly AI right before others build AI to a lower standard. That is a first-mover view, but about the AI's Friendliness, not about a builder or nation controlling the AI. No located later passage explicitly retracts it, so it is recorded as related, not earlier-self. Published 2008 in Global Catastrophic Risks (the text says it was written in 2006); the cached MIRI PDF reprint states it "contains minor changes". His 2008 strategic view was that the first AI must be Friendly; this is not an argument for racing, and in 2023 he called anyone talking of arms races "a fool" (TIME). Admission check, 2026-10-08: the quoted wording also appears in the draft of 5 February 2006, so the record is dated by the draft.
The evidence 02 primary source Supports the claim
Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk (MIRI reprint) ↗ Machine Intelligence Research Institute · 2008
Archived copy, captured 2013-03-02: Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk (MIRI reprint) ↗
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Paraphrase · shown only with its context He writes that Friendly AI has to be got right only in one place and once, but that someone must get it right on the first try, before anyone else builds AI to a lower standard.
Read it with this context. His 2023 statement that anyone talking of arms races is a fool.
Why: Reads as endorsement of racing when shown alone.
“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y24. Within his proposal for a worldwide moratorium, he rejects framing AI development as a national arms race on the ground that everyone shares the outcome. Discussing a moratorium that might begin in the United States, he describes the technology as one that no country could own and that would kill people in both countries. Inspect → “anyone talking of arms races is a fool. That we all live or die as one, in this, is not a policy but a fact of nature.” Location in source Section 11 Local and Majoritarian Strategies, paragraph beginning 'A first-mover effect implies a theoretically localizable strategy', printed p. 31
Machine-checked · 2026-10-06
Source details and check notes Authors Eliezer Yudkowsky Version MIRI reprint, "This version contains minor changes", retrieved 2026-10-06 with the hash recorded by the 1996–2022 candidate search; byte-identical to the capture of 2013-03-02. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2013-03-02: Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk (MIRI reprint) ↗ . An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2013-03-02. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-06.Attribution Eliezer Yudkowsky, "Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk", in Global Catastrophic Risks (2008); MIRI reprint. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage T24-d. The quotation (38 words) matched the retrieved expression (SHA-256 5b5a2ec3252a45f65cdc0b899330af2cbd946e75a31b83d5fbd3aa581a23615d) when checked on 2026-10-06. The dataset already quotes this source for the human-thought collection; together the quotations would exceed the per-document quotation limit. Converted to a labelled paraphrase. primary source Supports the claim
Artificial Intelligence and Global Risk (SIAI draft of 5 February 2006) ↗ Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence · 2006-02-05
Archived copy, captured 2006-07-08: Artificial Intelligence and Global Risk (SIAI draft of 5 February 2006) ↗
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Paraphrase The same wording appears in the draft dated 5 February 2006.
Location in source Draft of 5 February 2006, as captured on 2006-07-08
Machine-checked · 2026-10-08
Source details and check notes Authors Eliezer Yudkowsky Version Draft PDF as captured by the Internet Archive on 2006-07-08, retrieved 2026-10-06. The draft asks not to be quoted without permission, so it is cited for the presence and date of the wording, not quoted. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-06 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2006-07-08: Artificial Intelligence and Global Risk (SIAI draft of 5 February 2006) ↗ . Captured 153 days after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2006-07-08. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-06.Attribution Eliezer Yudkowsky, "Artificial Intelligence and Global Risk", SIAI draft of 5 February 2006. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata and labelled paraphrases only: the draft asks not to be quoted without permission. Phrases in quotation marks inside a paraphrase identify the source's wording. Check notes Compared on 2026-10-08 with the draft's PDF text layer after normalising quotation marks, dashes and whitespace. The draft asks not to be quoted without permission, so it is cited for the presence and date of the wording only. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document bears on the proposition without meeting its criterion; the record names the missing element. It is not an articulation and implies no influence.
Date. Date of the SIAI draft ("Draft of 5 February, 2006"), whose capture of 2006-07-08 contains the quoted wording; the chapter was published in 2008. As for the human-thought collection's records of this chapter.
Record ID yk-y24-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-b