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The Extropians message “Re: IA vs. AI” (1999-08-01) contests Y30. He says he went from holding that the Singularity is absolute good and that “They’ll be nice to us” to not knowing what absolute good is, and puts humanity’s chance on different days at 10% to 70%, a coin flip. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 1999-08-01 · publication Records dated 1999 → Role Contesting, Earliest located Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Engagement Engages a premise. Under the message-level rule, the passage gives a reason against the premise that the default outcome is good: he withdraws the assurance and states wide uncertainty. Scope and limits Premise addressed: the default outcome is good. He still calls the Singularity humanity’s best chance. Earliest located means the earliest text found by the collection’s searches and the cross-family re-check of 2026-11-02, not a first statement.
The evidence 02 primary source Supports the claim
Re: IA vs. AI was: longevity vs singularity (Extropians mailing list) ↗ Extropians mailing list · 1999-08-01
Archived copy, captured 2025-04-30: Re: IA vs. AI was: longevity vs singularity (Extropians mailing list) ↗
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Source excerpt “I went from "The Singularity is absolute good, no question about it, and They'll be nice to us" to "I don't have the vaguest idea of what absolute good is” Location in source Message body, paragraph beginning ‘That’s how I got here.’
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-11-02
Source details and check notes Authors Eliezer Yudkowsky Version Archive HTML as served, retrieved 2026-10-07 (SHA-256 8bcb591200086e9c95aaf3bf320d518d366fa66f403ceb081f7d4b448e1c398b); quoted lines excluded when reading the author’s text. The served archive shows later URL rewriting and does not authenticate historical bytes. Archive at extropians.weidai.com. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-07 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2025-04-30: Re: IA vs. AI was: longevity vs singularity (Extropians mailing list) ↗ . Captured 9404 days after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2025-04-30. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-07.Attribution Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Re: IA vs. AI was: longevity vs singularity”, Extropians mailing list, 1999-08-01. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Quotation matched on 2026-11-02 against the held source, retrieved on 2026-11-02 from the source’s evidence URL (SHA-256 8bcb591200086e9c95aaf3bf320d518d366fa66f403ceb081f7d4b448e1c398b). Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms; “…” joins fragments that occur in order. Cross-family pass: the re-check of 2026-11-02 (review/earliest-located-recheck-2026-11-02.md, role 108) read this text for this proposition and role. Admitted by the maintainer’s decision of 2026-11-02. No human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
Re: IA vs. AI was: longevity vs singularity (Extropians mailing list) ↗ Extropians mailing list · 1999-08-01
Archived copy, captured 2025-04-30: Re: IA vs. AI was: longevity vs singularity (Extropians mailing list) ↗
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Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
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Source excerpt “Some days it's 30%, some days it's 10%, some days it's 70%; you might as well split the difference and call it a coin-flip.” Location in source Message body, paragraph beginning ‘Reasonable, unreasonable - I don’t know.’
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-11-02
Source details and check notes Authors Eliezer Yudkowsky Version Archive HTML as served, retrieved 2026-10-07 (SHA-256 8bcb591200086e9c95aaf3bf320d518d366fa66f403ceb081f7d4b448e1c398b); quoted lines excluded when reading the author’s text. The served archive shows later URL rewriting and does not authenticate historical bytes. Archive at extropians.weidai.com. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-07 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2025-04-30: Re: IA vs. AI was: longevity vs singularity (Extropians mailing list) ↗ . Captured 9404 days after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2025-04-30. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-07.Attribution Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Re: IA vs. AI was: longevity vs singularity”, Extropians mailing list, 1999-08-01. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Quotation matched on 2026-11-02 against the held source, retrieved on 2026-11-02 from the source’s evidence URL (SHA-256 8bcb591200086e9c95aaf3bf320d518d366fa66f403ceb081f7d4b448e1c398b). Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms; “…” joins fragments that occur in order. Cross-family pass: the re-check of 2026-11-02 (review/earliest-located-recheck-2026-11-02.md, role 108) read this text for this proposition and role. Admitted by the maintainer’s decision of 2026-11-02. No human editorial review. Status and meaning Editorial status. Machine-checked . Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document disputes the proposition or a premise it depends on. The record documents the text’s position, not who is right.
Date. Archive author index lists the message as "1999-08-01" under "Eliezer S. Yudkowsky".
Record ID yk-y30-extropians-1999-08-01-yudkowsky-1386-c