Economics of machine intelligence
Which located texts, from 1952 to 2026, state, contest or bear on propositions about the economics of machine intelligence? Three strands are recorded. The first is the debate over whether machine intelligence could make economic growth explosive. The second is how mainstream economics treated automation, computers and AI. The third is how economists took up recursive self-improvement, superintelligence and existential risk from AI, ideas mostly discussed outside economics. For each proposition, which text by an economist is the earliest located, and which text outside that group?
Each row is one text’s stance on one proposition, as a stored record states it: articulates, contests or bears on. A stance belongs to the text, not to its author. Rows are in date order, which records no influence between texts. Authors appear as the texts’ own bylines print them, pseudonyms included. “Earliest located” marks only a text the collection’s records name as the earliest the searches found.
G · The explosive-growth debate
G01 Machine substitution for labour produces explosive growth
- Bears on · Tier 2Robin HansonIf Uploads Come First: The Crack of a Future Dawn1994-03-08 · published · wording attested 1998-02-20Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2Robin HansonSome Skepticism (comment in "A Critical Discussion of Vinge's Singularity Concept")1998-10 · published · wording attested 2000-11-17Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located · Tier 1Robin HansonEconomic Growth Given Machine Intelligence2000-08-19 · wording attested 2000-08-19 · claimed 1998Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1William D. NordhausAre We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth2015-09 · published · wording attested 2016-08-09Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Philippe Aghion; Benjamin F. Jones; Charles I. JonesArtificial Intelligence and Economic Growth2017-10 · published · wording attested 2018-12-14Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located in tier 2 · Tier 2Tom DavidsonCould Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?2021-06-25 · published · wording attested 2021-07-02Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 2Matt Clancy; Tamay BesirogluThe Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth2023-06 · published · wording attested 2023-12-23 · claimed 2023Inspect the record ↗
- Contests · Earliest located in tier 2 · Tier 2Matt Clancy; Tamay BesirogluThe Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth2023-06 · published · wording attested 2023-12-23 · claimed 2023Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Ege Erdil; Tamay BesirogluExplosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments2023-10-01 · published · wording attested 2023-10-01 · claimed 2023-09-20Inspect the record ↗
G02 Automated research produces accelerating growth
- Contests · Earliest located in tier 2 · Tier 2Robin HansonSome Skepticism (comment in "A Critical Discussion of Vinge's Singularity Concept")1998-10 · published · wording attested 2000-11-17Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Robin HansonEconomic Growth Given Machine Intelligence2000-08-19 · wording attested 2000-08-19 · claimed 1998Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located · Tier 1Philippe Aghion; Benjamin F. Jones; Charles I. JonesArtificial Intelligence and Economic Growth2017-10 · published · wording attested 2018-12-14Inspect the record ↗
- Contests · Earliest located · Tier 1Philippe Aghion; Benjamin F. Jones; Charles I. JonesArtificial Intelligence and Economic Growth2017-10 · published · wording attested 2018-12-14Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Philip Trammell; Anton KorinekEconomic Growth under Transformative AI: A guide to the vast range of possibilities for output growth, wages, and the labor share2021-02-04 · published · wording attested 2021-06-25 · claimed 2020-10Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located in tier 2 · Tier 2Tom DavidsonCould Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?2021-06-25 · published · wording attested 2021-07-02Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 2Matt Clancy; Tamay BesirogluThe Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth2023-06 · published · wording attested 2023-12-23 · claimed 2023Inspect the record ↗
G03 Long-run history suggests a further acceleration
- Articulates · Earliest located · Tier 1Robin HansonIs a Singularity Just Around the Corner? What it takes to get explosive economic growth1998-06 · published · wording attested 1999-01-28 · claimed 1998-03-30Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2Robin HansonSome Skepticism (comment in "A Critical Discussion of Vinge's Singularity Concept")1998-10 · published · wording attested 2000-11-17Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Robin HansonEconomic Growth Given Machine Intelligence2000-08-19 · wording attested 2000-08-19 · claimed 1998Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Robin HansonLong-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes2000-12 · published · wording attested 2001-11-28 · claimed 1998-09Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located in tier 2 · Tier 2Holden KarnofskyComment on "Modeling the Human Trajectory" ("Some personal reactions on this piece")2020-06-15 · published · wording attested 2020-06-23Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1David RoodmanModeling the Human Trajectory2020-06-15 · published · wording attested 2020-06-23Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 2Tom DavidsonCould Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?2021-06-25 · published · wording attested 2021-07-02Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 2Matt Clancy; Tamay BesirogluThe Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth2023-06 · published · wording attested 2023-12-23 · claimed 2023Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2Matt Clancy; Tamay BesirogluThe Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth2023-06 · published · wording attested 2023-12-23 · claimed 2023Inspect the record ↗
G04 Essential unautomated tasks bottleneck growth
- Contests · Earliest located · Tier 1Robin HansonEconomic Growth Given Machine Intelligence2000-08-19 · wording attested 2000-08-19 · claimed 1998Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located · Tier 1William D. NordhausAre We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth2015-09 · published · wording attested 2016-08-09Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Philippe Aghion; Benjamin F. Jones; Charles I. JonesArtificial Intelligence and Economic Growth2017-10 · published · wording attested 2018-12-14Inspect the record ↗
- Contests · Earliest located in tier 2 · Tier 2Tom DavidsonCould Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?2021-06-25 · published · wording attested 2021-07-02Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located in tier 2 · Tier 2Matt Clancy; Tamay BesirogluThe Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth2023-06 · published · wording attested 2023-12-23 · claimed 2023Inspect the record ↗
- Contests · Tier 2Matt Clancy; Tamay BesirogluThe Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth2023-06 · published · wording attested 2023-12-23 · claimed 2023Inspect the record ↗
- Contests · Tier 1Ege Erdil; Tamay BesirogluExplosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments2023-10-01 · published · wording attested 2023-10-01 · claimed 2023-09-20Inspect the record ↗
G05 Other constraints prevent explosive growth
- Contests · Earliest located · Tier 1William D. NordhausAre We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth2015-09 · published · wording attested 2016-08-09Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located · Tier 1Philippe Aghion; Benjamin F. Jones; Charles I. JonesArtificial Intelligence and Economic Growth2017-10 · published · wording attested 2018-12-14Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Philip Trammell; Anton KorinekEconomic Growth under Transformative AI: A guide to the vast range of possibilities for output growth, wages, and the labor share2021-02-04 · published · wording attested 2021-06-25 · claimed 2020-10Inspect the record ↗
- Contests · Earliest located in tier 2 · Tier 2Tom DavidsonCould Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?2021-06-25 · published · wording attested 2021-07-02Inspect the record ↗
- Contests · Tier 2Matt Clancy; Tamay BesirogluThe Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth2023-06 · published · wording attested 2023-12-23 · claimed 2023Inspect the record ↗
- Contests · Tier 1Ege Erdil; Tamay BesirogluExplosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments2023-10-01 · published · wording attested 2023-10-01 · claimed 2023-09-20Inspect the record ↗
G06 Current data show no approach to explosive growth
- Bears on · Tier 1William D. NordhausAre We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth2015-09 · published · wording attested 2016-08-09Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located in tier 2 · Tier 2Tom DavidsonCould Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?2021-06-25 · published · wording attested 2021-07-02Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 2Matt Clancy; Tamay BesirogluThe Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth2023-06 · published · wording attested 2023-12-23 · claimed 2023Inspect the record ↗
G07 Machine substitution drives wages down
- Articulates · Earliest located in tier 2 · Tier 2Robin HansonIf Uploads Come First: The Crack of a Future Dawn1994-03-08 · published · wording attested 1998-02-20Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located · Tier 1Robin HansonEconomic Growth Given Machine Intelligence2000-08-19 · wording attested 2000-08-19 · claimed 1998Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1William D. NordhausAre We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth2015-09 · published · wording attested 2016-08-09Inspect the record ↗
G08 AI’s near-term aggregate productivity effect is modest
G09 Estimates of explosive growth within a stated horizon
- Articulates · Tier 1Robin HansonEconomic Growth Given Machine Intelligence2000-08-19 · wording attested 2000-08-19 · claimed 1998Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Robin HansonLong-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes2000-12 · published · wording attested 2001-11-28 · claimed 1998-09Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1William D. NordhausAre We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth2015-09 · published · wording attested 2016-08-09Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located in tier 2 · Tier 2Holden KarnofskyComment on "Modeling the Human Trajectory" ("Some personal reactions on this piece")2020-06-15 · published · wording attested 2020-06-23Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 2Tom DavidsonCould Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?2021-06-25 · published · wording attested 2021-07-02Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 2Matt Clancy; Tamay BesirogluThe Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth2023-06 · published · wording attested 2023-12-23 · claimed 2023Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Ege Erdil; Tamay BesirogluExplosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments2023-10-01 · published · wording attested 2023-10-01 · claimed 2023-09-20Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Daron AcemogluThe Simple Macroeconomics of AI2024-04-05 · published · wording attested 2025-01-06Inspect the record ↗
M · Mainstream economics, automation and AI
M01 Computers and AI as ordinary technical change
- Articulates · Earliest located · Tier 1Walter S. Buckingham Jr.Statement (testifying as an economist), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings1955-10-14Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Walter S. Buckingham Jr.Statement (testifying as an economist), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings1955-10-14Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Edwin G. NourseStatement (former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings1955-10-28Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Edwin G. NourseStatement (former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings1955-10-28Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2Frank LynnAn Investigation of the Rate of Development and Diffusion of Technology in Our Modern Industrial Society1966-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Edwin MansfieldTechnological Change: Measurement, Determinants, and Diffusion1966-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2Philip Sporn; Patrick E. HaggertyComment by Mr. Sporn, joined by Mr. Haggerty, in Technology and the American Economy, Vol. I1966-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic ProgressTechnology and the American Economy: Report of the National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, Volume I1966-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Contests · Earliest located in tier 2 · Tier 2Nils J. NilssonArtificial Intelligence, Employment, and Income1984 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Wassily Leontief; Faye DuchinThe Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report1984-04 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Alan B. KruegerHow Computers Have Changed the Wage Structure: Evidence from Microdata, 1984-891991-10 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Alan B. KruegerHow Computers Have Changed the Wage Structure: Evidence from Microdata, 1984-891991-10 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Timothy Bresnahan; Erik Brynjolfsson; Lorin HittInformation Technology, Workplace Organization and the Demand for Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence1999-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Jeffrey D. Sachs; Laurence J. KotlikoffSmart Machines and Long-Term Misery2012-12 · published · wording attested 2013-01Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Carl Benedikt Frey; Michael A. OsborneThe Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?2013-09-17 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1William D. NordhausAre We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth2015-09 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoThe Race Between Machine and Man: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment2016-05 · published · wording attested 2017-06Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Philippe Aghion; Benjamin F. Jones; Charles I. JonesArtificial Intelligence and Economic Growth2017-10 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoArtificial Intelligence, Automation and Work2018-01 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoModeling Automation2018-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorDaron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoAutomation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor2019-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorDaron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoThe Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand2019-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
M02 AI as the automation of tasks
- Bears on · Tier 1Edwin G. NourseStatement (former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings1955-10-28Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Joseph P. NewhouseTechnological Change in Banking1966-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic ProgressTechnology and the American Economy: Report of the National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, Volume I1966-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Wassily Leontief; Faye DuchinThe Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report1984-04 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Jeffrey D. Sachs; Laurence J. KotlikoffSmart Machines and Long-Term Misery2012-12 · published · wording attested 2013-01Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located · Tier 1Carl Benedikt Frey; Michael A. OsborneThe Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?2013-09-17 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1David H. AutorWhy Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation2015 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoThe Race Between Machine and Man: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment2016-05 · published · wording attested 2017-06Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Philippe Aghion; Benjamin F. Jones; Charles I. JonesArtificial Intelligence and Economic Growth2017-10 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoArtificial Intelligence, Automation and Work2018-01 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoModeling Automation2018-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoThe Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment2018-06 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoAutomation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor2019 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Ajay Agrawal; Joshua Gans; Avi GoldfarbArtificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction2019 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Ajay Agrawal; Joshua S. Gans; Avi GoldfarbArtificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction2019-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Ajay Agrawal; Joshua S. Gans; Avi GoldfarbArtificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction2019-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoAutomation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor2019-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoThe Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand2019-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorDaron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoThe Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand2019-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Ajay Agrawal; Joshua Gans; Avi GoldfarbIntroduction to "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda"2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Tyler CowenNeglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Emilio Calvano; Giacomo Calzolari; Vincenzo Denicolò; Sergio PastorelloArtificial Intelligence, Algorithmic Pricing, and Collusion2020-10 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Tyna Eloundou; Sam Manning; Pamela Mishkin; Daniel RockGPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models2023-03-17 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Daron AcemogluThe Simple Macroeconomics of AI2024-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
M03 AI as a general-purpose technology with lagging productivity
- Articulates · Earliest located · Tier 1Erik Brynjolfsson; Daniel Rock; Chad SyversonArtificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics2017-11 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Erik Brynjolfsson; Daniel Rock; Chad SyversonArtificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics2017-11 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Anton Korinek; Joseph E. StiglitzArtificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment2017-12 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Manuel TrajtenbergAI as the Next GPT: A Political-Economy Perspective2018-01 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Ajay K. Agrawal; Joshua S. Gans; Avi GoldfarbEconomic Policy for Artificial Intelligence2018-06 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Ajay Agrawal; Joshua S. Gans; Avi GoldfarbArtificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction2019-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorAjay Agrawal; Joshua Gans; Avi GoldfarbIntroduction to "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda"2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Jason FurmanShould We Be Reassured If Automation in the Future Looks Like Automation in the Past?2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Tyna Eloundou; Sam Manning; Pamela Mishkin; Daniel RockGPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models2023-03-17 · publishedInspect the record ↗
M04 AI as cheaper prediction
- Articulates · Earliest located · Tier 1Ajay Agrawal; Joshua Gans; Avi GoldfarbThe Simple Economics of Machine Intelligence2016-11-17 · published · wording attested 2016-11-25Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Sendhil Mullainathan; Jann SpiessMachine Learning: An Applied Econometric Approach2017 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Ajay K. Agrawal; Joshua S. Gans; Avi GoldfarbPrediction, Judgment and Complexity: A Theory of Decision Making and Artificial Intelligence2018-01 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Ajay K. Agrawal; Joshua S. Gans; Avi GoldfarbEconomic Policy for Artificial Intelligence2018-06 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Ajay Agrawal; Joshua Gans; Avi GoldfarbArtificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction2019 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Ajay Agrawal; Joshua S. Gans; Avi GoldfarbArtificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction2019-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Ajay Agrawal; Joshua Gans; Avi GoldfarbIntroduction to "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda"2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
M05 Machines cheaper than labour at every task
- Bears on · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorWassily LeontiefMachines and Man1952-09 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2 · Relay of another authorJoint Committee on the Economic Report, Subcommittee on Economic StabilizationAutomation and Technological Change: Hearings (statements by non-economists)1955-10Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorWalter S. Buckingham Jr.Statement (testifying as an economist), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings1955-10-14Inspect the record ↗
- Contests · Earliest located · Tier 1Walter S. Buckingham Jr.Statement (testifying as an economist), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings1955-10-14Inspect the record ↗
- Contests · Tier 1Edwin G. NourseStatement (former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings1955-10-28Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2Paul ArmerComputer Aspects of Technological Change (selection)1966 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Contests · Tier 2Paul ArmerComputer Aspects of Technological Change (selection)1966 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Contests · Tier 1Sar A. LevitanNew Directions in Aid of the Poor (selection)1966 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2 · Relay of another authorNational Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic ProgressTechnology and the American Economy: Report of the National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, Volume I1966-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Contests · Earliest located in tier 2 · Tier 2National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic ProgressTechnology and the American Economy: Report of the National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, Volume I1966-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located in tier 2 · Tier 2Nils J. NilssonArtificial Intelligence, Employment, and Income1984 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2 · Relay of another authorNils J. NilssonArtificial Intelligence, Employment, and Income1984 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Wassily Leontief; Faye DuchinThe Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report1984-04 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Carl Benedikt Frey; Michael A. OsborneThe Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?2013-09-17 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Contests · Tier 1David H. AutorWhy Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation2015 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Seth G. Benzell; Laurence J. Kotlikoff; Guillermo LaGarda; Jeffrey D. SachsRobots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement2015-02 · published · wording attested 2018-10Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1William D. NordhausAre We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth2015-09 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoThe Race Between Machine and Man: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment2016-05 · published · wording attested 2017-06Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoThe Race Between Machine and Man: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment2016-05 · published · wording attested 2017-06Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Philippe Aghion; Benjamin F. Jones; Charles I. JonesArtificial Intelligence and Economic Growth2017-10 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Philippe Aghion; Benjamin F. Jones; Charles I. JonesArtificial Intelligence and Economic Growth2017-10 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Anton Korinek; Joseph E. StiglitzArtificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment2017-12 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoArtificial Intelligence, Automation and Work2018-01 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Ajay K. Agrawal; Joshua S. Gans; Avi GoldfarbPrediction, Judgment and Complexity: A Theory of Decision Making and Artificial Intelligence2018-01 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorManuel TrajtenbergAI as the Next GPT: A Political-Economy Perspective2018-01 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Contests · Tier 1Manuel TrajtenbergAI as the Next GPT: A Political-Economy Perspective2018-01 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoThe Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment2018-06 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Ajay Agrawal; Joshua S. Gans; Avi GoldfarbArtificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction2019-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoAutomation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor2019-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoThe Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand2019-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Ajay Agrawal; Joshua Gans; Avi GoldfarbIntroduction to "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda"2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Tyler CowenNeglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Contests · Tier 1Jason FurmanShould We Be Reassured If Automation in the Future Looks Like Automation in the Past?2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Contests · Tier 1Betsey StevensonArtificial Intelligence, Income, Employment, and Meaning2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Daron AcemogluThe Simple Macroeconomics of AI2024-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
M06a Automation lowers the labour share, wages or employment
- Articulates · Earliest located · Tier 1Walter S. Buckingham Jr.Statement (testifying as an economist), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings1955-10-14Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located in tier 2 · Tier 2John DieboldA Condensation of the Book Automation, in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings1955-10-14Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Edwin G. NourseStatement (former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings1955-10-28Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorNational Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic ProgressThe Employment Impact of Technological Change. Appendix Volume II, Technology and the American Economy1966-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 2National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic ProgressTechnology and the American Economy: Report of the National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, Volume I1966-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 2Nils J. NilssonArtificial Intelligence, Employment, and Income1984 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Wassily Leontief; Faye DuchinThe Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report1984-04 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Jeffrey D. Sachs; Laurence J. KotlikoffSmart Machines and Long-Term Misery2012-12 · published · wording attested 2013-01Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Seth G. Benzell; Laurence J. Kotlikoff; Guillermo LaGarda; Jeffrey D. SachsRobots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement2015-02 · published · wording attested 2018-10Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1William D. NordhausAre We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth2015-09 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoThe Race Between Machine and Man: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment2016-05 · published · wording attested 2017-06Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Philippe Aghion; Benjamin F. Jones; Charles I. JonesArtificial Intelligence and Economic Growth2017-10 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Anton Korinek; Joseph E. StiglitzArtificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment2017-12 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoArtificial Intelligence, Automation and Work2018-01 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoModeling Automation2018-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoThe Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment2018-06 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Ajay K. Agrawal; Joshua S. Gans; Avi GoldfarbEconomic Policy for Artificial Intelligence2018-06 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Jason Furman; Robert SeamansAI and the Economy2018-06 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoAutomation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor2019 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Ajay Agrawal; Joshua S. Gans; Avi GoldfarbArtificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction2019-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoAutomation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor2019-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoThe Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand2019-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Tyler CowenNeglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Jason FurmanShould We Be Reassured If Automation in the Future Looks Like Automation in the Past?2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Betsey StevensonArtificial Intelligence, Income, Employment, and Meaning2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Daron AcemogluThe Simple Macroeconomics of AI2024-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
M06b Compensating policy for AI’s distributional effects
- Bears on · Tier 1Walter S. Buckingham Jr.Statement (testifying as an economist), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings1955-10-14Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located in tier 2 · Tier 2John DieboldA Condensation of the Book Automation, in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings1955-10-14Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 2Walter P. ReutherStatement (president, Congress of Industrial Organizations), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings1955-10-17Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located · Tier 1Edwin G. NourseStatement (former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings1955-10-28Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Edwin G. NourseStatement (former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings1955-10-28Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 2National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic ProgressTechnology and the American Economy: Report of the National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, Volume I1966-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic ProgressTechnology and the American Economy: Report of the National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, Volume I1966-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 2Nils J. NilssonArtificial Intelligence, Employment, and Income1984 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Wassily Leontief; Faye DuchinThe Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report1984-04 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Jeffrey D. Sachs; Laurence J. KotlikoffSmart Machines and Long-Term Misery2012-12 · published · wording attested 2013-01Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Gill A. PrattIs a Cambrian Explosion Coming for Robotics?2015 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Seth G. Benzell; Laurence J. Kotlikoff; Guillermo LaGarda; Jeffrey D. SachsRobots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement2015-02 · published · wording attested 2018-10Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Anton Korinek; Joseph E. StiglitzArtificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment2017-12 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoArtificial Intelligence, Automation and Work2018-01 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Manuel TrajtenbergAI as the Next GPT: A Political-Economy Perspective2018-01 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Ajay K. Agrawal; Joshua S. Gans; Avi GoldfarbEconomic Policy for Artificial Intelligence2018-06 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Jason Furman; Robert SeamansAI and the Economy2018-06 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoAutomation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor2019-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoThe Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand2019-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Tyler CowenNeglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Tyler CowenNeglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Jason FurmanShould We Be Reassured If Automation in the Future Looks Like Automation in the Past?2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Betsey StevensonArtificial Intelligence, Income, Employment, and Meaning2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Tyna Eloundou; Sam Manning; Pamela Mishkin; Daniel RockGPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models2023-03-17 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Daron AcemogluThe Simple Macroeconomics of AI2024-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
M07 Exposure to automation measured from task content
- Articulates · Earliest located · Tier 1Carl Benedikt Frey; Michael A. OsborneThe Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?2013-09-17 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Mika Pajarinen; Petri RouvinenComputerization Threatens One Third of Finnish Employment2014-01-13 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Mika Pajarinen; Petri RouvinenComputerization Threatens One Third of Finnish Employment2014-01-13 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorJason FurmanShould We Be Reassured If Automation in the Future Looks Like Automation in the Past?2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Tyna Eloundou; Sam Manning; Pamela Mishkin; Daniel RockGPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models2023-03-17 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Tyna Eloundou; Sam Manning; Pamela Mishkin; Daniel RockGPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models2023-03-17 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Daron AcemogluThe Simple Macroeconomics of AI2024-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
M08 AI’s productivity effect over the next decade
- Bears on · Tier 1Wassily Leontief; Faye DuchinThe Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report1984-04 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Erik Brynjolfsson; Daniel Rock; Chad SyversonArtificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics2017-11 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located · Tier 1Daron AcemogluThe Simple Macroeconomics of AI2024-04-05 · published · wording attested 2025-01-06Inspect the record ↗
M09 Recent entry of machine intelligence into mainstream economics
- Bears on · Tier 2Joint Committee on the Economic Report, Subcommittee on Economic StabilizationAutomation and Technological Change: Hearings (statements by non-economists)1955-10Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Walter S. Buckingham Jr.Statement (testifying as an economist), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings1955-10-14Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorHoward R. Bowen (ed.); Garth L. Mangum (ed.)Automation and Economic Progress1966 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorEdwin MansfieldTechnological Change: Measurement, Determinants, and Diffusion1966-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2 · Relay of another authorNils J. NilssonArtificial Intelligence, Employment, and Income1984 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Wassily Leontief; Faye DuchinThe Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report1984-04 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Timothy Bresnahan; Erik Brynjolfsson; Lorin HittInformation Technology, Workplace Organization and the Demand for Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence1999-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Jeffrey D. Sachs; Laurence J. KotlikoffSmart Machines and Long-Term Misery2012-12 · published · wording attested 2013-01Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Carl Benedikt Frey; Michael A. OsborneThe Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?2013-09-17 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Joel Mokyr; Chris Vickers; Nicolas L. ZiebarthThe History of Technological Anxiety and the Future of Economic Growth: Is This Time Different?2015 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Seth G. Benzell; Laurence J. Kotlikoff; Guillermo LaGarda; Jeffrey D. SachsRobots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement2015-02 · published · wording attested 2018-10Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1William D. NordhausAre We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth2015-09 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoThe Race Between Machine and Man: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment2016-05 · published · wording attested 2017-06Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Philippe Aghion; Benjamin F. Jones; Charles I. JonesArtificial Intelligence and Economic Growth2017-10 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Erik Brynjolfsson; Daniel Rock; Chad SyversonArtificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics2017-11 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Anton Korinek; Joseph E. StiglitzArtificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment2017-12 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoArtificial Intelligence, Automation and Work2018-01 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Manuel TrajtenbergAI as the Next GPT: A Political-Economy Perspective2018-01 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Ajay K. Agrawal; Joshua S. Gans; Avi GoldfarbEconomic Policy for Artificial Intelligence2018-06 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Jason Furman; Robert SeamansAI and the Economy2018-06 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Daron Acemoglu; Pascual RestrepoThe Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand2019-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located · Tier 1Ajay Agrawal; Joshua Gans; Avi GoldfarbIntroduction to "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda"2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Ajay Agrawal; Joshua Gans; Avi GoldfarbIntroduction to "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda"2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Tyler CowenNeglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorBetsey StevensonArtificial Intelligence, Income, Employment, and Meaning2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Emilio Calvano; Giacomo Calzolari; Vincenzo Denicolò; Sergio PastorelloArtificial Intelligence, Algorithmic Pricing, and Collusion2020-10 · publishedInspect the record ↗
E · Superintelligence and existential risk
E01 Machine intelligence improving itself accelerates its capability growth
- Bears on · Tier 1Robin HansonIs a Singularity Just Around the Corner? What it takes to get explosive economic growth1998-06 · published · wording attested 1999-01-28Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2Robin HansonSome Skepticism (comment in "A Critical Discussion of Vinge's Singularity Concept")1998-10 · published · wording attested 2000-11-17Inspect the record ↗
- Contests · Earliest located in tier 2 · Tier 2Robin HansonSome Skepticism (comment in "A Critical Discussion of Vinge's Singularity Concept")1998-10 · published · wording attested 2000-11-17Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Robin HansonEconomic Growth Given Machine Intelligence2000-08-19 · wording attested 2000-08-19 · claimed 1998Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2Robin HansonSetting the Stage2008-11-18 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 2 · Relay of another authorRobin HansonAI Go Foom2008-11-20 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located in tier 2 · Tier 2Eliezer YudkowskyRecursive Self-Improvement2008-12-01 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Contests · Tier 2Robin HansonWrapping Up2008-12-07 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2Robin HansonDebating Yudkowsky2011-07-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2Robin HansonFoom Debate, Again2013-02-18 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorWilliam D. NordhausAre We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth2015-09 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1William D. NordhausAre We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth2015-09 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorAri HyytinenOvatko hyvät johtamismenetelmät talouskasvun lähde? (pääkirjoitus)2017 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located · Tier 1Philippe Aghion; Benjamin F. Jones; Charles I. JonesArtificial Intelligence and Economic Growth2017-10 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Contests · Earliest located · Tier 1Philippe Aghion; Benjamin F. Jones; Charles I. JonesArtificial Intelligence and Economic Growth2017-10 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Joshua S. GansSelf-Regulating Artificial General Intelligence2018-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Philip Trammell; Anton KorinekEconomic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)2023-10 · published · wording attested 2023-11-29Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Philip Trammell; Anton KorinekEconomic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)2023-10 · published · wording attested 2023-11-29Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Philip Trammell; Anton KorinekEconomic Growth under Transformative AI2023-10 · published · wording attested 2026-04Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Philip Trammell; Anton KorinekEconomic Growth under Transformative AI2023-10 · published · wording attested 2026-04Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Charles I. JonesThe A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk2023-11 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Anton Korinek; Donghyun SuhScenarios for the Transition to AGI2024-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Daron AcemogluThe Simple Macroeconomics of AI2024-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
E02 Machine intelligence exceeding human cognition in essentially all domains
- Bears on · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorRobin HansonEconomic Growth Given Machine Intelligence2000-08-19 · wording attested 2000-08-19 · claimed 1998Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located in tier 2 · Tier 2Robin HansonDebating Yudkowsky2011-07-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorWilliam D. NordhausAre We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth2015-09 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Philippe Aghion; Benjamin F. Jones; Charles I. JonesArtificial Intelligence and Economic Growth2017-10 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorAnton Korinek; Joseph E. StiglitzArtificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment2017-12 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorAjay Agrawal; Joshua Gans; Avi GoldfarbIntroduction to "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda"2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located · Tier 1Philip Trammell; Anton KorinekEconomic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)2023-10 · published · wording attested 2023-11-29Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Philip Trammell; Anton KorinekEconomic Growth under Transformative AI2023-10 · published · wording attested 2026-04Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorCharles I. JonesThe A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk2023-11 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Charles I. JonesThe A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk2023-11 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Anton Korinek; Donghyun SuhScenarios for the Transition to AGI2024-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorDaron AcemogluThe Simple Macroeconomics of AI2024-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Charles I. JonesHow Much Should We Spend to Reduce A.I.'s Existential Risk?2025-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Ajay Agrawal; Joshua Gans; Avi GoldfarbGenius on Demand: The Value of Transformative Artificial Intelligence2025-10 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Pascual RestrepoWe Won't be Missed: Work and Growth in the AGI World2025-10 · publishedInspect the record ↗
E03 Existential risk from AI as a matter for economic analysis
- Bears on · Tier 2Robin HansonSetting the Stage2008-11-18 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2Robin HansonWrapping Up2008-12-07 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located · Tier 1William D. NordhausAre We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth2015-09 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Anton Korinek; Joseph E. StiglitzArtificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment2017-12 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorAnton Korinek; Joseph E. StiglitzArtificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment2017-12 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Joshua S. GansSelf-Regulating Artificial General Intelligence2018-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1 · Relay of another authorAjay Agrawal; Joshua Gans; Avi GoldfarbIntroduction to "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda"2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Philip Trammell; Anton KorinekEconomic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)2023-10 · published · wording attested 2023-11-29Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Philip Trammell; Anton KorinekEconomic Growth under Transformative AI2023-10 · published · wording attested 2026-04Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Joshua S. GansCan Socially-Minded Governance Control the AGI Beast?2023-11 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Charles I. JonesThe A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk2023-11 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Charles I. JonesThe AI Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk2024-12 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Charles I. JonesHow Much Should We Spend to Reduce A.I.'s Existential Risk?2025-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
E04 AI developers’ incentives matter for safety
- Articulates · Earliest located in tier 2 · Tier 2Robin HansonFriendliness Factors2008-11-16 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2Robin HansonEmulations Go Foom2008-11-22 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 2Robin HansonFriendly Projects vs. Products2008-12-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 2Robin HansonWrapping Up2008-12-07 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2Robin HansonWrapping Up2008-12-07 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1William D. NordhausAre We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth2015-09 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Anton Korinek; Joseph E. StiglitzArtificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment2017-12 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Joshua S. GansSelf-Regulating Artificial General Intelligence2018-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Philip Trammell; Anton KorinekEconomic Growth under Transformative AI2023-10 · published · wording attested 2026-04Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located · Tier 1Joshua S. GansCan Socially-Minded Governance Control the AGI Beast?2023-11 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Charles I. JonesHow Much Should We Spend to Reduce A.I.'s Existential Risk?2025-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Ethan Bueno de Mesquita; Wioletta Dziuda; Mattias PolbornThe AGI Race and Existential Risk2026-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
E05 Economics’ engagement with superintelligence, AGI and the singularity
- Bears on · Tier 1Robin HansonIs a Singularity Just Around the Corner? What it takes to get explosive economic growth1998-06 · published · wording attested 1999-01-28Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Robin HansonEconomic Growth Given Machine Intelligence2000-08-19 · wording attested 2000-08-19 · claimed 1998Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2Robin HansonSetting the Stage2008-11-18 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2Robin HansonWhat Core Argument?2008-12-10 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 2Robin HansonFoom Debate, Again2013-02-18 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Earliest located · Tier 1William D. NordhausAre We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth2015-09 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Ari HyytinenOvatko hyvät johtamismenetelmät talouskasvun lähde? (pääkirjoitus)2017 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Philippe Aghion; Benjamin F. Jones; Charles I. JonesArtificial Intelligence and Economic Growth2017-10 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Anton Korinek; Joseph E. StiglitzArtificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment2017-12 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Joshua S. GansSelf-Regulating Artificial General Intelligence2018-02 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Ajay Agrawal; Joshua Gans; Avi GoldfarbIntroduction to "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda"2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Tyler CowenNeglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence2019-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Philip Trammell; Anton KorinekEconomic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)2023-10 · published · wording attested 2023-11-29Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Philip Trammell; Anton KorinekEconomic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)2023-10 · published · wording attested 2023-11-29Inspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Philip Trammell; Anton KorinekEconomic Growth under Transformative AI2023-10 · published · wording attested 2026-04Inspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Charles I. JonesThe A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk2023-11 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Anton Korinek; Donghyun SuhScenarios for the Transition to AGI2024-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Anton Korinek; Donghyun SuhScenarios for the Transition to AGI2024-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Daron AcemogluThe Simple Macroeconomics of AI2024-05 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Articulates · Tier 1Charles I. JonesHow Much Should We Spend to Reduce A.I.'s Existential Risk?2025-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Charles I. JonesHow Much Should We Spend to Reduce A.I.'s Existential Risk?2025-03 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Erik Brynjolfsson; Anton Korinek; Ajay AgrawalA Research Agenda for the Economics of Transformative AI2025-09 · publishedInspect the record ↗
- Bears on · Tier 1Isaiah Andrews; Maryam FarboodiDo Markets Believe in Transformative AI?2025-09 · published · wording attested 2026-07Inspect the record ↗